After a quiet few weeks in the Atlantic, hurricane season may soon awaken again. A tropical weather disturbance approaching the Lesser Antilles — the island chain separating the eastern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea — could be primed to gradually develop late this week, then pose a threat to the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the southeastern United States, including Florida, by the weekend or early next week.
On Monday, the National Hurricane Center estimated that this disturbance has a 50 percent chance of eventual development into a tropical depression or storm. If it reaches storm intensity, “Debby” is the next name on 2024’s list of Atlantic storms.
Computer models project the system may remain weak for the next four or five days, but some indicate it has the potential to organize quickly when it’s not far from the United States.
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This system may mark the beginning of a period of increased storminess in the Atlantic. Experts continue to warn that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be extremely active. In fact, researchers at Colorado State University estimate there will be 25 named storms, including the three that have formed so far.
The season has already featured Beryl, which became the earliest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record before it struck Houston on July 8, buffeting the city with 80 to 90 mph winds and nearly a foot of rain.
Where is the system of concern, and how strong is it?
On Monday, the system was about 700 to 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and was slowly drifting west. It looked ragged and disheveled on satellite imagery, with only a few weak pulses of shower and thunderstorm activity.
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That’s because it was being knocked off-kilter by strong upper-level winds to the north of the system. Moreover, dry air at high altitudes was wrapping into the disturbance, eroding its structure and ability to sprout thunderstorms.
How likely is it a tropical storm or hurricane will develop?
In the short term, the system has very limited prospects to develop. Hostile winds and pockets of dry air will continue to impede it for the next three or four days. By late in the workweek, it will be meandering through the Bahamas or near the Dominican Republic and Haiti, perhaps approaching Cuba.
By Friday and Saturday, high-altitude winds may relax enough to allow some strengthening. Moreover, upward-moving air will begin to spread over the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
The rising air currents could help the system strengthen if it’s not weakened by potentially passing over land in the Dominican Republic, Haiti or Cuba.
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If the system survives long enough to make it into the Gulf of Mexico or the southwestern Atlantic, the risk of becoming a named storm or hurricane increases. However, some computer modeling suggests this system will not hold together and won’t present a significant threat that far west.
Where could this potential storm go?
The envelope of possibilities of where the system may end up is very large. The main influence on its path is the Bermuda high — a large semi-stationary high pressure system over the central Atlantic. Clockwise steering currents around this high will push the system westward and eventually more to the north. But exactly where and when this northward turn occurs is difficult to project this many days in advance.
What areas need to watch this most carefully?
The system is unlikely to strengthen substantially before reaching Puerto Rico, so it looks like the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico probably won’t see major impacts. Cuba, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, Florida and the Carolinas should keep close tabs.
Are there any other threats?
Aside from this system, there are no other areas of concern in the tropics. But the Atlantic could become much busier in mid-August. That’s when a cycling weather pattern known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation will support rising air over the tropical Atlantic.
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